It’s Gonna Be a Weird One! Q4 2024

In our last post about Karen Garcia‘s appearance on Affiliate NerdOut, we signaled that Q4 is going to be a weird one this year. This is first Q4 since 2019 where Black Friday and Cyber Monday will land in different months, throwing off numbers and budgets. This year Black Friday is on Nov. 29th, and Cyber Monday on Dec. 2.

I spoke with Tricia Meyer of the Performance Marketing Association, on how affiliate managers can best communicate with brands, publishers, and others this year. With 20 years in the industry, Meyer had a lot of actionable advice for brands, publishers, and affiliate managers on how to prepare for the best (and weirdest!) Q4 2024.

I. Setting Expectations: Apples and Oranges

Meyer advised that it is important to let brands know that the numbers for November will be off this year. It wouldn’t be fair to compare November 2024 with November 2023, because last year, Cyber Monday fell on Nov. 27th. Therefore, it wouldn’t be an apples to apples comparison.

But no one wants to hear, “lower your expectations.” So when I asked Tricia how best to communicate this, she suggested highlighting the weekend report. This report focuses on Black Friday to Cyber Monday as a block, rather than the monthly split. This way, merchants and C-suite folks can see how the entire weekend did as compared with previous years.

Another option I floated and Tricia supported, is to compare November 2019 to 2024. It’ll be wildly different (because it was pre-Covid and 5 years ago), but at least it’ll be a more similar comparison. 2019 was the most recent year that the biggest weekend in shopping was split between November and December.

II. Setting and Adjusting Budgets

It’s not just communication that will have to be adjusted this year. Budgets will also have to be tailored to the bi-monthly split. For example, early December will need to take some of what would normally be in November’s budget. Goals and commission increases will also need to be adjusted. For example, December budgets will have to be higher than last year because we’ll be seeing higher sales that what we saw the last four years for the beginning of the month.

III. Pros & Cons of a Split Weekend

There are pros and cons to a split weekend. Are people going to wait until Cyber Monday to try to get the best deals? Meyer suggested, probably not. Amazon has already launched their Prime Days this week, and other merchants are quickly following.

Managers, brands, and publishers can take advantage of an opportunity here: promote products that people likely won’t want to wait on. These include items that require more shipping time, such as:

• Personalized items
• Items coming from a different country and then being shipped internally
• Larger or heavier items

Think about your product line in terms of what they require in terms of shipping time. Then focus promoting those items leading up to the end of November.

“You might be able to capitalize on an ‘Order Now–Get Free Shipping’ promotion prior to December 2nd and then start pushing the Cyber Monday deals. Because you still have Green Monday, Free Shipping Day, and so on, in December, and a lot of people won’t want to wait until Dec. 2nd to buy their items for fear they won’t get there in time for Christmas. So think about reasons to get people to buy items at the end of November besides Cyber Monday deals, and take advantage of that!”

Tricia Meyer, Performance Marketing Association

If you need more advice on how to set yourself up to have the best Q4 ever, please don’t hesitate to reach out to us at Lab6 Media. We have over 30 combined years in the space and can help you feel confident this year! The clearer we are on what to expect, the better our ability to communicate and help everyone meet and exceed their goals.